Singapore may avoid recession for now: PM Lee
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By Imelda Saad | Posted: 09 October 2012 1704 hrs
WELLINGTON, NEW ZEALAND: Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong says Singapore should brace for slower growth ahead, even as a technical recession may be avoided for now.
Speaking at the end of his official visit to New Zealand on Tuesday, Mr Lee told reporters that the GDP numbers for the second quarter of this year "may look a little better than the first estimates".
"So you might technically avoid a technical recession," he said.
Singapore's economy shrank 0.7 per cent in the April-June quarter from the first quarter, based on advance estimates from the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI). And, economists expect the government to report another decline in GDP for the July-September quarter, pushing the country into a recession.
But Mr Lee indicated that the final Q2 numbers may be revised upwards, and if they turn out to be positive, a technical recession will not happen in the third quarter.
Advance estimates for the third quarter will be released by MTI on Friday.
However Mr Lee added a technical recession later may be unavoidable with the prospect of slower growth.
Mr Lee warned that slow growth also means that Singapore will not have a lot of margin for error. Hence, the need to keep the economy strong.
"When you are going for slower growth, and we are expecting slower growth, then the chances of you dipping below zero from time to time will be much greater," said Mr Lee.
He went on to say: "If you are going to make five, six per cent (growth), when you slow down, you slow down to three per cent, it's okay. If you're going to make one, two per cent (growth), (when) you slow down, you slow down to zero or minus one, and I think psychologically that is a big difference.
"I think that's another reason why we must keep our economy strong, because there's a very big impact on the mood of the people on the confidence of the population and of investors when they see an economy which is able to continue to make progress steadily."
On calls by some Singaporeans for the country to focus less on material aspirations, Mr Lee said Singapore needs to find the right balance between growth, social considerations and quality of life.
He said there also needs to be dynamism and buzz so that there will be opportunities for Singaporeans.
One key challenge, Mr Lee said, is to raise productivity to ensure a steady rate of growth.
"I think we have to work very hard in upgrading productivity, because that's the key for the long term," he said.
"In the short term, we can't just shut off the workers we need because if you did, the companies will not be able to cope and that's not going to do any good to productivity either.
"So, you have to find the right balance to bring in the numbers that you need, subject to right controls and in a sustainable way, and at the same time put a lot of emphasis on companies upgrading themselves."
Mr Lee added: "I think in Singapore many of the companies are finding it difficult finding the workers that they need. They can see the business opportunities there, they want to take the contracts and the orders, they want to start up the new outlets, they can't find the workers.
"So, does that mean that productivity will go up automatically? No. But it means that there's pressure on them to make the most of workers that they have and to train the workers with the help from all the government schemes, so that productivity will go up.
"There is no magic solution! You can't just turn on the tap and the hot water comes out. You have to work hard at it. There'll be ups and downs and there'll be rough spots, and we are going to get used to not so fast growth as before, but we have to work to achieve that, because you can't just lie back and say, 'I'm working too hard, I have to slow down'.
"We have to maintain the balance but we have to make the effort."
Mr Lee is in New Zealand from 6-9 October for an official visit. Earlier Tuesday, he visited the Republic of Singapore Navy's (RSN) Formidable-class frigate RSS Stalwart in Wellington.
During the ship visit hosted by Chief of Navy Rear-Admiral Ng Chee Peng, Mr Lee was accompanied by New Zealand's Minister of Defence Dr Jonathan Coleman and other senior officials from the two countries.
Personnel from the New Zealand Defence Force and Singaporeans living in Wellington were also present.
The delegates were brought on a tour of the ship and briefed on the frigate's capabilities. Mr Lee and Dr Coleman also interacted with the crew of RSS Stalwart.
RSS Stalwart is making a port call at Queen's Wharf in Wellington before its participation in Exercise Lion Zeal with the Royal New Zealand Navy (RNZN) in Auckland.
The RSN and RNZN interact regularly through professional exchanges and visits, cross-attendance of professional courses and multilateral exercises under the ambit of the Five Power Defence Arrangements and the Western Pacific Naval Symposium.
Prime Minister Lee has since left New Zealand for Melbourne for the start of his official visit to Australia.
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Avoid avoid if not sure being pressurized to go for pay cut. He just had pay cut several months ago, of course don't wish to have any further cut.
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avoid but still...
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of course lah, paid miilions where got see any downturn or recession?
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have but don't feel it.
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I'm born in Singapore in 1963. I've seen and been through so many recessions in Singapore. No strength anymore and sicked and tired of these recessions in Singapore. I think older people than me are sicked and tired of these recessions too.
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got ppl steal 5 tins of mil powder leh goes to jail possible leh? don;t know is 1kg 1 or not
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Sometimes I see Singapore like 'Ikan Bilis' (Anchovy) trying to eat and swallow a whale....and Singapore got choke.
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Originally posted by zulkifli mahmood:
Sometimes I see Singapore like ‘Ikan Bilis’ (Anchovy) trying to eat and swallow a whale….and Singapore got choke.
as the saying goes, don't blame the size of the swimming trunk if you can't swim.
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Originally posted by zulkifli mahmood:
I’m born in Singapore in 1963. I’ve seen and been through so many recessions in Singapore. No strength anymore and sicked and tired of these recessions in Singapore. I think older people than me are sicked and tired of these recessions too.
yeah and it's the local's fault because we're not cheaper better faster or otherwise there wouldn't be a recession.
that's why immigration is going to continue since the economy is not doing so well.
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Originally posted by Clivebenss:
as the saying goes, don't blame the size of the swimming trunk if you can't swim.
haha...thats a good one Clivebenss...you're funny...thanks for making me laughs...well they say, "Laughter is the best medicine." Hmmm....if the swimming trunk doesn't fit you then you jump into the water or sea naked maybe its lighter and you can float instead of swimming...haha...just joking here. Hmmm...this reminded me that Singapore is an island surrounded by water. Being a native islander, you should learn how to float on water so you wouldn't be drowning so soon and you can flee to the nearest shore when Singapore sink when the sea level rises in the future. -
Originally posted by zulkifli mahmood:
haha...thats a good one Clivebenss...you're funny...thanks for making me laughs...well they say, "Laughter is the best medicine." Hmmm....if the swimming trunk doesn't fit you then you jump into the water or sea naked maybe its lighter and you can float instead of swimming...haha...just joking here. Hmmm...this reminded me that Singapore is an island surrounded by water. Being a native islander, you should learn how to float on water so you wouldn't be drowning so soon and you can flee to the nearest shore when Singapore sink when the sea level rises in the future.Is that the reason why we need so many admirals?
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Originally posted by Clivebenss:
Is that the reason why we need so many admirals?
admirals huh...I would prefer just one man from atlantis..an excellant swimmer... -
Originally posted by zulkifli mahmood:
admirals huh...I would prefer just one man from atlantis..an excellant swimmer...patrick duffy?
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Enough of jestering now. I think we have to look at it seriously too. PM Lee said: “On calls by some Singaporeans for the country to focus less on material aspirations, Mr Lee said Singapore needs to find the right balance between growth, social considerations and quality of life.� Along the way for progress, we have lost that noble quality. It was different from now and I do not see it anymore as we move on toward the future. As a matter of fact, I feel we are not able to bring that noble quality like in the past. Now, I think most Singaporeans are lost and they do not really know what direction Singapore is going. PM Lee: “One key challenge, Mr Lee said, is to raise productivity to ensure a steady rate of growth. “I think we have to work very hard in upgrading productivity, because that’s the key for the long term,� he said. “In the short term, we can’t just shut off the workers we need because if you did, the companies will not be able to cope and that’s not going to do any good to productivity either.� We used to have Work Improvement Team campaign in the past to promote productivity. It has disappeared in most company. Productuctivity used to be Quantity + Quality Control = Good Result. Now it is all very messy, mostly base on dollars and cents; and Quantity rather than Quality….and that is very bad. PM Lee: “I think in Singapore many of the companies are finding it difficult finding the workers that they need. They can see the business opportunities there, they want to take the contracts and the orders, they want to start up the new outlets, they can’t find the workers�. In the past, most employers used to be very understanding and compassionate. When they know you are the bread winner of the family, they will give you a good stable income. In the past, we used to have a minimum basic salary of $250 but now….none. I think it is time to have a basic salary policy enforce again. I think the minimum basic salary for Singapore now should be $1500. PM said: “So, does that mean that productivity will go up automatically? No. But it means that there’s pressure on them to make the most of workers that they have and to train the workers with the help from all the government schemes, so that productivity will go up.� I think most of the Bosses must go through “The Undercover Boss� programmes and see for themselves what problems their workers face daily at work and take care of their worker’s welfare. About Skill upgrading, I have many Skill Development Certificate from WDA, but most companies in Singapore does not really recognise it and my salary still remain below $1500. PM said: “There is no magic solution! You can’t just turn on the tap and the hot water comes out. You have to work hard at it. There’ll be ups and downs and there’ll be rough spots, and we are going to get used to not so fast growth as before, but we have to work to achieve that, because you can’t just lie back and say, ‘I’m working too hard, I have to slow down’. Yes, I agree. It is time for the younger generation of Singapore to make that difference now. How about the older or mature workers who had contributed much to Singapore economy and went through many recessions with Singapore many times, what do they gain from all this and when they retire? Slowing down does not indicates that we are just lie back, but we give opportunities to the young generation Singaporeans to take over the key roles and then we retire….just like when PM Lee took over MM Goh Chok Tong. Most old Singaporeans do not have enough cash money to retire and die happy later. PM Lee said: “We have to maintain the balance but we have to make the effort.� We make the effort and maintain balance and then we stop and rest, when we are exhausted, then continue our journey again after we have recover from our exhaustion.
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Effort is but without rest for the others.
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Originally posted by Clivebenss:
Effort is but without rest for the others.
If no rest we all Singaporeans die standing lah like that... -
Originally posted by zulkifli mahmood:
If no rest we all Singaporeans die standing lah like that...As long they can reap benefits, other lives are worth sacrificing.
As Old Hokkien saying : Pa lang eh chiu cheng chio sai buay tia (Using others hand to hammer the stone lion; no pain.)
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Originally posted by Clivebenss:
As long they can reap benefits, other lives are worth sacrificing.
As Old Hokkien saying : Pa lang eh chiu cheng chio sai buay tia (Using others hand to hammer the stone lion; no pain.)
Biakin ah...bo tachi ah...ho chiak ho koon lor...tiok bo tiok.. -
I read about this article yesterday in Yahoo Singapore. I thought I share within this thread. 'Shock therapy' economist urges NWC to call for more wage increases By Jeanette Tan | Yahoo! Newsroom – Thu, Oct 25, 2012 An economist who earlier called for a drastic hike in salaries of low-income workers in Singapore has urged the country’s wage council to continue batting for quantitative increases in the workers’ monthly pay for the next two years. Speaking on Thursday morning before an audience of 200 people at the annual Singapore Economic Policy Forum, former National Wages Council (NWC) chairperson and Nanyang Technological University economics professor Lim Chong Yah commended the tripartite body’s recommendation that workers getting below $1,000 a month get a $50-hike in their salaries. “That (the $50 NWC increment) is a very good move, and that might reduce the number of people having very, very low income,� he told reporters at the sidelines of the forum. “We don’t need big changes, we just need to have recommendations to increase the wages of the lowest income group in Singapore systematically over the next few years.� He also said that should monthly wages remain low, say below $1,000, a compulsory minimum wage should be implemented to pull Singapore's lowest salaries up. In his set of proposals he titled “Shock Therapy II�, Lim also again pressed for a three-year freeze on the country’s highest salaries. Earlier this year, Lim’s proposed “shock therapy� to address the country’s widening income gap. He had urged the raising of salaries of workers earning less than $1,500 by 50 per cent over three years while imposing a moratorium on the country’s highest wages during the same time. On Thursday, he said his latest proposals would work better than increasing government transfers and allowing salaries to rise to what he calls “exorbitant, unconscionable� levels, which he believes would make Singapore’s economy uncompetitive. “If we all expect the government to do this, to do that, so much transfers to help the poor, needy and low-income groups, where does the government get the money? Through taxes. (But) you see if you raise taxes too high, you affect our competitiveness,� he said, citing reasons such as having a small labour market, a lack of natural resources and the increased risk of inflation arising from overcrowding. As for the moratorium, Lim said it would be imposed more as a psychological measure to prevent all of the wages at the highest echelons of the private sector from rising together. “If the top level wages go up, they pull people linked to them up and in the long run, we become an uncompetitive economy,� he added. Might the proverbial golden goose (of our local top talent) flee the country in that scenario? Lim doubts so. “There is no fear they will emigrate or run away just because there is a freeze or kind of moratorium... I doubt very much. But if the alternative is to have higher and higher taxes, that might frighten them away,� he said. To make this plan happen without causing excessive inflation, Lim said it has to be “properly handled, carefully implemented and spread over three years�. He added that his aim was to ensure that companies take part in active restructuring, using better technology and mechanisation and reducing their dependence on cheap foreign labour, in particular manual labour, failing which profit margins could decline. “I hope that the main impact will be on restructuring and another impact, probably this is not so desirable, on the margin of profit... profit levels in some cases will be lower,� he said. Explaining why he now included the provision of a $1,000 minimum wage scheme in his proposal, Lim said it should be used as a last resort. “Let us work on the policy of raising the pay... of the lowest income groups, the tail end, first,� he said. Why $1,000? Lim says it appears to be a good figure, coming in at about a third of the minimum wage in neighbouring Malaysia, and a quarter of that in Australia. “Besides that, (that amount) has been used by NTUC, by NWC as a benchmark, below which they say that wages should go up by at least $50, so it’s a good, nice figure and I think that’s about right, the $1,000 figure,� he said, qualifying that should inflationary pressures become too high, the figure may have to be adjusted further in the future.
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Originally posted by zulkifli mahmood:
Biakin ah...bo tachi ah...ho chiak ho koon lor...tiok bo tiok..ho chiak ho koon ho pang sai..
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Originally posted by Clivebenss:
ho chiak ho koon ho pang sai..
Alamak! Ai yah..lu bsai kong anikuan lor katan swee amoi meng lu chow ahpek ...lu paisai lah...but..lu meng tiok..wah sokong lu lah...lu chiak chiak chiak..boh pangsai lu asai si loh...haha...tiok boh tiok.. -
Originally posted by zulkifli mahmood:
Alamak! Ai yah..lu bsai kong anikuan lor katan swee amoi meng lu chow ahpek ...lu paisai lah...but..lu meng tiok..wah sokong lu lah...lu chiak chiak chiak..boh pangsai lu asai si loh...haha...tiok boh tiok..Eat , sleep, shit health is important. Chow ah pek, nevermind as long as I am healthy and free to roam about.
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Originally posted by Clivebenss:
Eat , sleep, shit health is important. Chow ah pek, nevermind as long as I am healthy and free to roam about.
Yes..I agree. My kampung was near Paya Lebar Airport it was called Kampung Ladang. Most of my friends back then in the 60s and early 70s were Chinese and I used to speak Hokkien to them. Where was your Kampung Clive? -
Originally posted by zulkifli mahmood:
Yes..I agree. My kampung was near Paya Lebar Airport it was called Kampung Ladang. Most of my friends back then in the 60s and early 70s were Chinese and I used to speak Hokkien to them. Where was your Kampung Clive?I used to live downtown in the Hokkien quarters and I had been a kampong boy too at Toa Payoh (or Kim Keat as it was then called) during the Japanese occupation.